ADVERTISEMENT
Thursday, February 2, 2023
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
Involve Africa
  • Home
  • All African News
  • Politics
  • Technology
  • Entertainment News
    • Travel
    • Tourism
    • Arts
  • Finance
    • Food & Agriculture
    • Business & Economy
  • Crypto News
  • Energy & Environment
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • All African News
  • Politics
  • Technology
  • Entertainment News
    • Travel
    • Tourism
    • Arts
  • Finance
    • Food & Agriculture
    • Business & Economy
  • Crypto News
  • Energy & Environment
No Result
View All Result
Involve Africa
No Result
View All Result
ADVERTISEMENT
Home Politics

fears that Belarus might invade on Russia’s side are growing

Involve Africa by Involve Africa
June 21, 2022
in Politics
0
fears that Belarus might invade on Russia’s side are growing
585
SHARES
3.2k
VIEWS
https://web.facebook.com/involveafricanews?_rdc=1&https://twitter.com/involveafricanews


As the war in Ukraine drags on and Russia’s attempts to gain significant ground in Donbas stall, concerns are being raised once again about the possibility of Belarus opening a second front. This, so the logic goes, would require Ukraine to redeploy forces from the front lines in the east and make it easier for Russia to capture more territory there. This risk now appears heightened in the context of a Lithuanian ban on the transit of certain goods from Russia through Belarus and Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.




Read more:
Kaliningrad: Russia’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ deep in Nato territory


Ukrainian officials, however, appear less worried. The president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview on June 6, deemed the risk of an invasion from Belarus minimal. It’s a view also held by Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and similarly endorsed by the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov.

Belarusian and Ukrainian military and security experts also assess the possibility of Belarus entering the war against Ukraine as small. There is a prominent school of thought that there has been no actual proof of pressure from Moscow the Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, to join the war – and rather that it is a bargaining tool for the Belarusian president to improve his damaged relations with the west by demonstrating that he can resist Putin´s pressure.

You might also like

Nigeria: Govt Replies El-Rufai, Says Buhari Not Working for or Against Any Presidential Candidate

The Met police force is too big to govern – here’s how it should be broken up

Researchers find new pro-Russia influence campaign targeting Africa : NPR

Yet, over May and June 2022 there has been an increase in military activities along the Belarus-Ukraine border. Russia has deployed Iskander, Pantsir and S-400 missile systems in the area. Lukashenko, has reportedly decided to create a southern command and expand the country’s armed forces to 80,000 from its current strength of 65,000. Belarus has also held further military exercises. Perhaps most worryingly, Lukashenko also hinted that his forces might have to “fight for western Ukraine” so that it is “not chopped off by the west”.

It’s somewhat reminiscent of the situation in late March, when similar concerns were raised that Belarus might join the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It did not happen then, so the the question is whether anything has changed that increases the risk it might happen now?




Read more:
Ukraine: the complex calculations that will decide whether Belarus enters the conflict on Russia’s side


What has changed

First, there are significant differences on the battlefield. Back in March, Russian troops were still besieging Kyiv. Since then, they have been redeployed in Donbas. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have also launched successful counteroffensives around Kharkiv in the north and Kherson and Zaporozhia in the south. At the same time, Russia has made incremental, but important gains in Donbas.

Second, western support for Ukraine has further increased. Sanctions against Russia have been extended and the European Commission has recommended that Ukraine be given official candidate status for EU membership.

Vladimir Putin and Aleksander Lukashenko watch a video screen as part of an exercise to test Russia's strategic deterrent, Moscow February 2022.
War games: Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko at a military exercise to test Russia’s strategic deterrent in the situation room in the Kremlin, February 2022.
EPA-EFE/Aleksey Nikolsky/Sputnik/Kremlin pool

Moreover, while Kyiv’s western allies recognise that the war in Ukraine could possibly last for years, the Ukrainian determination to win appears stronger than ever. Formal negotiations with Russia have been suspended since the end of May and are unlikely to resume before the end of the summer.

Not everything has changed, though. Public opinion in Belarus remains firmly against involvement into the war with Ukraine. Moreover, according to a Chatham House survey, 40% of Belarusians do not support Russia’s war, compared to 32% who do, while around half of those questioned see predominately negative consequences of the war for Belarus (53%) and for themselves (48%).

The Belarusian military and security services are also aware of the determined and skilful resistance that Ukrainian forces have put up against Russia and the risks that they would therefore be running if they entered the war against Ukraine. This, in turn, means that the risk to Lukashenko himself remains that he might lose his grip on power, a grip which depends heavily on the loyalty of his armed forces.

Putin pressure

On the other hand, however, Putin’s control of Belarus is near total. This is partly a result of worsening relations between Belarus and the west, especially since the crackdown on protests after the contested presidential elections in August 2020, the hijacking of a Ryanair flight in order to detain a dissident journalist, Roman Protasevich, and the 2021 migrant crisis during which Lukashenko tried to pressure the west to lift sanctions imposed on his illegitimate regime. The resulting leverage that the Kremlin has may simply leave Belarusian president with very few options if Putin decides that the only pathway to success for him in his war in Ukraine is through Belarus.

This need not imply a full-scale invasion by the Belarusian army into Ukraine. But it could involve a gradual escalation: more military exercises at the border, false-flag operations, incursions by special forces and missile attacks from Belarusian territory on the Ukrainian capital and major population centres. Belarus could also threaten western supply lines, especially along the Ukrainian-Polish border. At a minimum, this would cause further destruction in Ukraine and possibly tie up Ukrainian forces meaning they are drawn away from what is currently the main theatre of operations in Donbas.

While not constituting the worst-case scenario of Belarus actually joining in active combat operations, even such a gradual escalation would be bad news. It would complicate the military situation for Ukraine. Belarus, too, would likely be dragged deeper and deeper into the war, which has become a more realistic possibility with Russia threatening retaliation over Lithuania’s decision to bloc sanctioned goods from entering Kaliningrad via rail from Belarus.

Ultimately, Belarus may not be on the brink of being plunged into war quite yet, but its options to avoid such a disaster are narrowing.



Source_link

Previous Post

Return of looted art to Africa [Culture TMC]

Next Post

Ade Adekola Nigerian Digital Artist Creating Digital Anthologies & NFT Collections – African Digital Art

Involve Africa

Involve Africa

Related Posts

Nigeria: Govt Replies El-Rufai, Says Buhari Not Working for or Against Any Presidential Candidate
Politics

Nigeria: Govt Replies El-Rufai, Says Buhari Not Working for or Against Any Presidential Candidate

by Involve Africa
February 2, 2023
The Met police force is too big to govern – here’s how it should be broken up
Politics

The Met police force is too big to govern – here’s how it should be broken up

by Involve Africa
February 1, 2023
Researchers find new pro-Russia influence campaign targeting Africa : NPR
Politics

Researchers find new pro-Russia influence campaign targeting Africa : NPR

by Involve Africa
February 1, 2023
Ex-President Mahama launches comeback as his allies reorganise opposition
Politics

Ex-President Mahama launches comeback as his allies reorganise opposition

by Involve Africa
February 1, 2023
Politics

Mauritius is moving a step ahead in its fight against cancer by extending vaccination against Human Papillomavirus to boys aged 9 to 15 years | WHO

by Involve Africa
January 31, 2023
Next Post
Ade Adekola Nigerian Digital Artist Creating Digital Anthologies & NFT Collections – African Digital Art

Ade Adekola Nigerian Digital Artist Creating Digital Anthologies & NFT Collections – African Digital Art

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recommended

Health coverage in Africa | Access to service delivery

Health coverage in Africa | Access to service delivery

December 5, 2022
why African farmers aren’t doing it

why African farmers aren’t doing it

August 26, 2022

Categories

  • All African News
  • Arts
  • Business & Economy
  • Crypto News
  • Energy & Environment
  • Entertainment News
  • Finance
  • Food & Agriculture
  • News Videos
  • Politics
  • Technology
  • Tourism
  • Travel

Don't miss it

African Development Fund helps create thousands of jobs for youth in Malawi | African Development Bank
Food & Agriculture

African Development Fund helps create thousands of jobs for youth in Malawi | African Development Bank

February 2, 2023
Ethiopia: a border town ravaged by the Tigray conflict | DW News
News Videos

Ethiopia: a border town ravaged by the Tigray conflict | DW News

February 2, 2023
A newbie’s safety guide to solo travel
Tourism

A newbie’s safety guide to solo travel

February 2, 2023
Univeristies and excellence in default — Opinion — The Guardian Nigeria News – Nigeria and World News
Arts

Univeristies and excellence in default — Opinion — The Guardian Nigeria News – Nigeria and World News

February 2, 2023
Nigeria: Govt Replies El-Rufai, Says Buhari Not Working for or Against Any Presidential Candidate
Politics

Nigeria: Govt Replies El-Rufai, Says Buhari Not Working for or Against Any Presidential Candidate

February 2, 2023
Ground Breakers: Billionaire mining boss Robert Friedland calls for end of African discount in epic copper rant
Technology

Ground Breakers: Billionaire mining boss Robert Friedland calls for end of African discount in epic copper rant

February 2, 2023

Social Bar

Welcome to involve Africa The goal of involve Africa is to give you the absolute best news sources for any topic! Our topics are carefully curated and constantly updated as we know the web moves fast so we try to as well.

Categories

  • All African News
  • Arts
  • Business & Economy
  • Crypto News
  • Energy & Environment
  • Entertainment News
  • Finance
  • Food & Agriculture
  • News Videos
  • Politics
  • Technology
  • Tourism
  • Travel

Site Links

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Recent News

African Development Fund helps create thousands of jobs for youth in Malawi | African Development Bank

African Development Fund helps create thousands of jobs for youth in Malawi | African Development Bank

February 2, 2023
Ethiopia: a border town ravaged by the Tigray conflict | DW News

Ethiopia: a border town ravaged by the Tigray conflict | DW News

February 2, 2023

INVOLVEAFRICA.COM

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • All African News
  • Politics
  • Technology
  • Entertainment News
    • Travel
    • Tourism
    • Arts
  • Finance
    • Food & Agriculture
    • Business & Economy
  • Crypto News
  • Energy & Environment

INVOLVEAFRICA.COM

What Are Cookies
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept All”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
Cookie SettingsAccept All
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT